Community heat flow recommendations: suitable basal boundary conditions for Greenland and Antarctica in ISMIP7

References

• Aitken, A.R.A., Young, D.A., Ferraccioli, F., Betts, P.G., Greenbaum, J.S., Richter, T.G., Roberts, J.L., Blankenship, D.D. & Siegert, M.J. 2014: The subglacial geology of Wilkes land, East Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 41(7), 2390–2400. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059405
• An, M., Wiens, D.A., Zhao, Y., Feng, M., Nyblade, A.A., Kanao, M., Li, Y., Maggi, A. & Lévêque, J.-J. 2015: Temperature, lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary, and heat flux beneath the Antarctic Plate inferred from seismic velocities. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120(12), 8720–8742. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB011917
• Artemieva, I.M. 2019: Lithosphere thermal thickness and geothermal heat flux in Greenland from a new thermal isostasy method. Earth-Science Reviews 188, 469–481. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2018.10.015
• Bell, R., Blankenship, D., Finn, C.A., Morse, D., Scambos, T., Brozena, J. & Hodge, S. 1998: Influence of subglacial geology on the onset of a West Antarctic ice stream from aerogeophysical observations. Nature 394(6688), 58–62. https://doi.org/10.1038/27883
• Bell, R., Studinger, M., Shuman, C.A., Fahnestock, M.A. & Joughin, I. 2007: Large subglacial lakes in East Antarctica at the onset of fast-flowing ice streams. Nature 445(7130), 904–907. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature05554
• Betts, P.G. 2024: Geology from aeromagnetic data. Earth-Science Reviews 258, 104958. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104958
• Burton-Johnson, A., Dziadek, R. & Martin, C. 2020a: Geothermal heat flow in Antarctica: Current and future directions. The Cryosphere Discussions 2020, 1–45. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-2020-59
• Burton-Johnson, A. et al. 2020b: The SERCE Geothermal Heat Flow Sub-Group. Antarctic Geothermal Heat Flow: Future research directions, [Other]. hdl:10013/epic.a8337a75-74a0-454b-9fac-26ba2adc8dae
• Calov, R. & Hutter, K. 1997: Large scale motion and temperature distributions in land-based ice shields; the Greenland lce Sheet in response to various climatic scenarios. Archives of Mechanics 49(5), 919–962.
• Claesson Lijiedahl, L. et al. 2016: The Greenland Analogue Project: Final report. Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB. [Accessed Feb 2025]. https://www.nwmo.ca/~/media/Site/Reports/2016/09/06/14/28/NWMOTR201612_Final-Report.ashx?la=en
• Colgan, W., MacGregor, J.A., Mankoff, K.D., Haagenson, R., Rajaram, H., Martos, Y.M., et al. 2021: Topographic correction of geothermal heat flux in Greenland and Antarctica. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 126, e2020JF005598. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF005598
• Colgan, W. et al. 2022: Greenland geothermal heat flow database and map (version 1). Earth System Science Data 14(5), 2209–2238. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-2209-2022
• Dahl-Jensen, D., Mosegaard, K., Gundestrup, N., Clow, G.D., Johnsen, S.J., Hansen, A.W. & Balling, N. 1998: Past temperatures directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Science 282(5387), 268–271. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.282.5387.268
• Davies, J.H. 2013: Global map of solid Earth surface heat flow. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 14(10), 4608–4622. https://doi.org/10.1002/ggge.20271
• Davison, A.C. & Hinkley, D.V. 1997: Bootstrap methods and their application (1st ed.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
• Dawes, P.R. 2009: The bedrock geology under the Inland Ice: The next major challenge for Greenland mapping. Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland Bulletin 17, 57–60. https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v17.5014
• Ebbing, J., Gernigon, L., Pascal, C., Olesen, O. & Osmundsen, P.T. 2009: A discussion of structural and thermal control of magnetic anomalies on the mid-Norwegian margin. Geophysical Prospecting 57(4), 665–681. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2478.2009.00800.x
• Fahnestock, M., Abdalati, W., Joughin, I., Brozena, J. & Gogineni, P. 2001: High geothermal heat flow, basal melt, and the origin of rapid ice flow in central Greenland. Science 294(5550), 2338–2342. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1065370
• Fahrner, D. et al. 2025: Re-gridded and topographically corrected geothermal heat flow data. Supplementary material for Lösing et al. (2025): Community Heat Flow Recommendations: Suitable Basal Boundary Conditions for Greenland and Antarctica in ISMIP7. [Dataset]. Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.17745730
• Fox Maule, C., Purucker, M.E., Olsen, N. & Mosegaard, K. 2005: Heat flux anomalies in Antarctica revealed by satellite magnetic data. Science 309(5733), 464–467. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1106888
• Fox Maule, C., Purucker, M. & Olsen, N. 2009: Inferring magnetic crustal thickness and geothermal heat flux from crustal magnetic field models. Danish Climate Centre Report 09-09. Danish Meteorological Institute. Copenhagen, Denmark.
• Freienstein, J., Szwillus, W., Wansing, A. & Ebbing, J. 2024: Statistical appraisal of geothermal heat flow observations in the Arctic. Solid Earth 15(4), 513–533. https://doi.org/10.5194/se-15-513-2024
• Fuchs, S. et al. 2024: The Global Heat Flow Database: Release 2024. GFZ Data Services. Potsdam, Germany. https://doi.org/10.5880/fidgeo.2024.014
• Gard, M. & Hasterok, D. 2021: A global Curie depth model utilising the equivalent source magnetic dipole method. Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors 313(1), 106672. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pepi.2021.106672
• Goelzer, H. et al. 2018: Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: An ISMIP6 intercomparison. The Cryosphere 12(4), 1433–1460. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018
• Goelzer, H. et al. 2020: The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: A multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6. The Cryosphere 14(9), 3071–3096. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
• Goodge, J.W. 2018: Crustal Heat Production and estimate of terrestrial heat flow in central East Antarctica, with Implications for Thermal Input to the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. The Cryosphere 12, 491–504. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-12-491-2018
• Goutorbe, B., Poort, J., Lucazeau, F. & Raillard, S. 2011: Global heat flow trends resolved from multiple geological and geophysical proxies. Geophysical Journal International 187(3), 1405–1419. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05228.x
• Greve, R. 2005: Relation of measured basal temperatures and the spatial distribution of the geothermal heat flux for the Greenland ice sheet. Annals of Glaciology 42, 424–432. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756405781812510
• Greve, R. 2019: Geothermal heat flux distribution for the Greenland ice sheet, derived by combining a global representation and information from deep ice cores. Polar Data Journal 3, 22–36. National Institute of Polar Research. https://doi.org/10.20575/00000006
• Guimarães, S.N.P., Vieira, F.P. & Hamza, V.M. 2020: Heat flow variations in the Antarctic Continent. International Journal of Terrestrial Heat Flow and Applications 3(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.31214/ijthfa.v3i1.51
• Haeger, C., Petrunin, A.G. & Kaban, M.K. 2022: Geothermal heat flow and thermal structure of the Antarctic Lithosphere. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 23(10), e2022GC010501. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GC010501
• Hartikainen, J., Kougia, R. & Wallroth, T. 2021: Evaluation of SR-Site and SR-PSU permafrost models against the GAP site bedrock temperatures (No. SKB TR-21-08). Svensk Kärnbränslehantering AB. Stockholm, Sweden.
• Hazzard, J.A. & Richards, F.D. 2024: Antarctic geothermal heat flow, crustal conductivity and heat production inferred from seismological data. Geophysical Research Letters 51(7), e2023GL106274. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106274
• Helton, J.C. & Davis, F.J. 2003: Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems. Reliability Engineering & System Safety 81(1), 23–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0951-8320(03)00058-9
• Jordan, T.A., Martin, C., Ferraccioli, F., Matsuoka, K., Corr, H., Forsberg, R., Olesen, A. & Siegert, M. 2018: Anomalously high geothermal flux near the South Pole. Scientific Reports 8(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-35182-0
• Karlsson, N.B. et al. 2021: A first constraint on basal melt-water production of the Greenland ice sheet. Nature Communications 12(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23739-z
• Li, L. & Aitken, A.R. 2024: Crustal heterogeneity of Antarctica signals spatially variable radiogenic heat production. Geophysical Research Letters 51(2), e2023GL106201. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL106201
• Llubes, M., Lanseau, C. & Rémy, F. 2006: Relations between basal condition, subglacial hydrological networks and geothermal flux in Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 241(3–4), 655–662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2005.10.040
• Lösing, M. & Ebbing, J. 2021: Predicting geothermal heat flow in Antarctica with a machine learning approach. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 126(6), e2020JB021499. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB021499
• Lucazeau, F. 2019: Analysis and mapping of an updated terrestrial heat flow data set. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 20(8), 4001–4024. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GC008389
• MacGregor, J.A., Chu, W., Colgan, W.T., Fahnestock, M.A., Felikson, D., Karlsson, N.B., Nowicki, S.M.J. & Studinger, M. 2022: GBaTSv2: A revised synthesis of the likely basal thermal state of the Greenland Ice Sheet. The Cryosphere 16(8), 3033–3049. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-16-3033-2022
• Martos, Y.M., Catalán, M., Jordan, T.A., Golynsky, A., Golynsky, D., Eagles, G. & Vaughan, D.G. 2017: Heat flux distribution of antarctica unveiled. Geophysical Research Letters 44(22), 11417. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075609
• Martos, Y.M., Jordan, T.A., Catalán, M., Jordan, T.M., Bamber, J.L. & Vaughan, D.G. 2018: Geothermal heat flux reveals the Iceland hotspot track underneath Greenland. Geophysical Research Letters 45(16), 8214–8222. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078289
• McCormack, F.S., Roberts, J.L., Dow, C.F., Stål, T., Halpin, J.A., Reading, A.M. & Siegert, M.J. 2022: Fine-scale geothermal heat flow in Antarctica can increase simulated subglacial melt estimates. Geophysical Research Letters 49(15), e2022GL098539. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022gl098539
• Näslund, J.-O., Jansson, P., Fastook, J.L., Johnson, J. & Andersson, L. 2005: Detailed spatially distributed geothermal heat-flow data for modeling of basal temperatures and meltwater production beneath the Fennoscandian ice sheet. Annals of Glaciology 40, 95–101. https://doi.org/10.3189/172756405781813582
• Nowicki, S., Payne, A., Larour, E., Seroussi, H., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W., Gregory, J., Abe-Ouchi, A. & Shepherd, A. 2016: Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (ISMIP6) contribution to CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development 9(12), 4521–4545. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-4521-2016
• Nowicki, S. et al. 2020: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models. The Cryosphere 14(7), 2331–2368. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020
• Núñez Demarco, P., Prezzi, C. & Sánchez Bettucci, L. 2020: Review of Curie point depth determination through different spectral methods applied to magnetic data. Geophysical Journal International 224(1), 17–39. https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa361
• Pappa, F. & Ebbing, J. 2021: Gravity, magnetics and geothermal heat flow of the Antarctic lithospheric crust and mantle. Geological Society, London, Memoirs 56, 213–229. https://doi.org/10.1144/M56-2020-5
• Pittard, M., Galton-Fenzi, B., Roberts, J. & Watson, C. 2016: Organization of ice flow by localized regions of elevated geothermal heat flux. Geophysical Research Letters 43(7), 3342–3350. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068436
• Pollack, H.N., Hurter, S.J. & Johnson, J.R. 1993: Heat flow from the earth’s interior: analysis of the global data set. Reviews of Geophysics 31(3), 267–280. https://doi.org/10.1029/93RG01249
• Purucker, M.E. 2012: Geothermal heat flux data set based on low resolution observations collected by CHAMP satellite between 2000 and 2010, and produced from the MF-6 model following the technique described in Fox Maule et al. (2005). Datasets are available here. https://core2.gsfc.nasa.gov/research/purucker/heatflux_updates.html (Accessed June 2025)
• Raspoet, O. & Pattyn, F. 2025: Estimates of basal and englacial thermal conditions of the Antarctic ice sheet. Journal of Glaciology 71, e104. doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2025.10087
• Reading, A.M., Stål, T., Halpin, J.A., Lösing, M., Ebbing, J., Shen, W., McCormack, F.S., Siddoway, C.S. & Hasterok, D. 2022: Antarctic geothermal heat flow and its implications for tectonics and ice sheets. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3, 814–831. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00348-y
• Rezvanbehbahani, S., Stearns, L.A., Kadivar, A., Walker, J.D. & van der Veen, C.J. 2017: Predicting the geothermal heat flux in Greenland: A machine learning approach. Geophysical Research Letters 44(24), 12–271. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075661
• Rogozhina, I. et al. 2016: Melting at the base of the Greenland ice sheet explained by Iceland hotspot history. Nature Geoscience 9(5), 366–369. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2689
• Seiner, O., Hugney, A., Seroussi, H. & MacGregor, J.A. 2025: A synthesis of the basal thermal state of the Antarctic ice sheet. Journal of Glaciology 71, e127. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2025.10102
• Seroussi, H., Ivins, E.R., Wiens, D.A. & Bondzio, J. 2017: Influence of a West Antarctic mantle plume on ice sheet basal conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 122(9), 7127–7155. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JB014423
• Seroussi, H. et al. 2019: initMIP-Antarctica: An ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6. The Cryosphere 13(5), 1441–1471. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-1441-2019
• Seroussi, H. et al. 2020: ISMIP6 Antarctica: A multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century. The Cryosphere 14(9), 3033–3070. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020
• Seroussi, H. et al. 2024: Evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet over the next three centuries from an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble. Earth’s Future 12(9), e2024EF004561. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004561
• Shapiro, N.M. & Ritzwoller, M.H. 2004: Inferring surface heat flux distributions guided by a global seismic model: Particular application to Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 223, 213–224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2004.04.011
• Shen, W., Wiens, D.A., Lloyd, A.J. & Nyblade, A.A. 2020: A geothermal heat flux map of Antarctica empirically constrained by seismic structure. Geophysical Research Letters 47(14), 91. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL086955
• Stål, T., Halpin, J.A., Goodge, J.W. & Reading, A.M. 2024: Geology matters for Antarctic geothermal heat. Geophysical Research Letters 51(13), e2024GL110098. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL110098
• Stål, T., Reading, A.M., Halpin, J.A. & Whittaker, J.M. 2021: Antarctic geothermal heat flow model: Aq1. Geochemistry, Geophysics, Geosystems 22(2), e2020GC009428. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GC009428
• Talalay, P., Li, Y., Augustin, L., Clow, G.D., Hong, J., Lefebvre, E., Markov, A., Motoyama, H. & Ritz, C. 2020: Geothermal heat flux from measured temperature profiles in deep ice boreholes in Antarctica. The Cryosphere 14(11), 4021–4037. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4021-2020
• Tarasov, L. & Peltier, W.R. 2003: Greenland glacial history, borehole constraints, and Eemian extent. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 108(B3), 2001JB001731. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB001731
• Yardim, C. et al. 2022: Greenland ice sheet subsurface temperature estimation using ultrawideband microwave radiometry. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 60, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2020.3043954
• Zhang, T., Colgan, W., Wansing, A., Løkkegaard, A., Leguy, G., Lipscomb, W.H. & Xiao, C. 2024: Evaluating different geothermal heat-flow maps as basal boundary conditions during spin-up of the Greenland ice sheet. The Cryosphere 18(1), 387–402. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-387-2024